Park City Real Estate Blog

Housing recovery and Housing vs. manufacturing

By Sean Brown
Jul 05, 2012

Two more gems from Calulated Risk:

1) Goldman Sachs put out a research note today: House Prices Finding a Bottom. This isn't a strong call, and is only a slight upward revision to their previous forecast. As they note, there are many factors adding to the "noise" in the house price indexes (distressed sales, foreclosure moratorium, recent warm weather), and a 0.2% increase in prices over the next year isn't much.

A few brief excerpts:

[O]ur model projects a nominal house price gain of 0.2% from 2012Q1 to 2013Q1 and another 1.4% from 2012Q1 to 2013Q1. Taken literally, this would imply that the bottom in nominal house prices is now behind us.

While the recent house price news is encouraging, we would not yet sound the "all clear" for the housing market or the broader economy. First, the instability in the seasonal factors over the past few years is a potential source of noise in the recent house price indicators, and also in our model. ... In addition, the seasonal factors can be also distorted by one-off items ... All of these complications ... adds to the uncertainty as to whether the better recent numbers indicate a true turnaround in the US housing market.

Second, even if the market is gradually turning, as our model implies, the difference between a slightly declining and a slightly increasing national average for home prices is minor, especially given the wide variation between stronger and weaker markets. Our broad view remains that national home prices will remain close to flat over the next 1-2 years, or at a minimum that the recovery will remain very "U-shaped."

2)

A note on manufacturing vs. housing: The ISM manufacturing index dropped below 50 for the first time since July 2009 (below 50 indicates contraction). And the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI also fell below 50.

Meanwhile, in the US, housing is picking up. Housing starts have been increasing, residential construction spending is up 17% from the recent low, and new home sales have averaged 353 thousand on an annual rate basis over the first 5 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months.

If someone looked at just manufacturing, they might think the US is near a recession. And if they just looked at housing, they'd think the economy is recovering. Which is it?

First, the decline in the ISM index was partially driven by exports (no surprise given the problems in Europe and slowdown in China). The ISM export index declined to 47.5 in June from 53.5 in May, the lowest level since early 2009. However some of this export weakness will probably be offset by lower oil and gasoline prices.

Second, the current ISM reading of 49.7 isn't all that weak. Goldman Sachs analysts noted yesterday: "A reading such as this has historically been associated with just under 2% real GDP growth--very near our current second-quarter tracking estimate of 1.6%."

Third, housing is usually a better leading indicator for the US economy than manufacturing. Historically housing leads the economy both into and out of recessions (not out of the recession this time because of the excess supply in 2009). Manufacturing is more coincident. So the ISM index suggests some weakness now - mostly abroad - whereas housing suggests an ongoing sluggish recovery.

Who ya gonna call? Housing.

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Contact Sean



SEAN BROWN, Associate Broker
Phone: 435.640.7111
Email: Sean@SeanJBrown.com 
Skype: ILiveInTheFuture